The number of new melanoma cases diagnosed globally was estimated to increase by more than 50% from 2020 to 2040.
Clinical Pearls
This study aimed to assess the global incidence and mortality patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and estimate how they will change by 2040
A worldwide total of 325,000 new melanoma cases and 57,000 deaths due to melanoma was estimated to occur in the year 2020
The number of new melanoma cases diagnosed globally was estimated to increase by more than 50% from 2020 to 2040. Deaths due to melanoma were estimated to increase by approximately 68% from 2020 to 2040.
Discussion:
The incidence of melanoma has been steadily increasing within the past 50 years, particularly in fair-skinned populations of European ancestry. Due to generational increases in melanoma incidence in most high-risk populations and other contributing factors, the incidence of melanoma has been predicted to continue to increase in the next few decades. This study aimed to describe the variations in magnitude and distribution of melanoma globally for the year 2020 while also estimating the future burden of the disease in 2040.
The authors used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database from the International Agency for Research on Cancer to extract the number of new melanoma cases and deaths due to melanoma for 185 countries or territories. The associated population data for each country or territory was extracted from the United Nations website. To predict the change in incidence or mortality for melanoma for the year 2040, the estimated changes in world population size and age structure were used.
The study found that an estimated 325,000 new cases of melanoma (174,000 Male, 151,000 Female) were diagnosed worldwide in the year 2020. It was also found that an estimated 57,000 persons (32,000 Male, 25,000 Female) died of melanoma in 2020. Around 80% of all newly diagnosed cases and 88% of deaths due to melanoma were in patients older than 50 years of age. There were significant geographic variations in incidence of melanoma seen, with the highest incidence rates of melanoma observed in Australia/New Zealand (42 cases per 100,000 person-years in males and 31 cases per 100,000 person-years in females). This was followed by Western Europe (19 cases per 100,000 person-years for males and females) and North America (18 cases per 100,000 person-years for males and 14 cases per 100,000 person-years for females).
If the rates of incidence and death stayed stable from 2020 to 2040, the burden of melanoma was estimated to increase from 325,000 new cases to 510,000 new cases and 57,000 deaths to 96,000 deaths. An important limitation of this study was that the future projections were based on the assumption that the incidence and mortality of melanoma would not change between the year 2020 and 2040.
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